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  • Reply to Peter Turchin on Attrition

    The cliometrician, Peter Turchin, recently posted on his substack, https://peterturchin.substack.com/p/is-ukraine-russia-war-entering-the, an analysis of wars of attrition that is seriously flawed. You can find more detail in his preprint https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/k5b42_v1

    Turchin has used the Correlates of War datasets (https://correlatesofwar.org/) to find 7 modern wars of attrition. He concluded that once a critical point is passed at battle deaths between 2 and 3% of the total population, the nation will be defeated, unless their foe is in equally bad shape, which results in stalemate.

    The most obvious flaw in the analysis is that it excludes the winners of wars. You can’t understand wars without including the winners. Here is the data, using the same datasets that Turchin used, with the winners included.

    Attrition

    WarStart YearEnd YearStateOutcomeBatDeathPopC%
    American Civil War18611865CSALoss2588.72.97%
    American Civil War18611865USAWin36023.61.53%
    World War One19141918FranceWin138533.24.17%
    World War One19141918GermanyLoss1773672.65%
    WW2-Europe19391945GermanyLoss3500794.43%
    WW2-Europe19391945USSRWin75001973.81%
    WW2-Pacific19411945JapanLoss1740732.38%
    WW2-Pacific19411945USAWin4051330.30%
    Korean War19501953North KoreaStalemate31610.53.01%
    Korean War19501953South KoreaStalemate113190.59%
    Vietnam War19651975North VietnamWin700193.68%
    Vietnam War19651975South VietnamLoss25437.50.68%
    Iran-Iraq War19801988IranStalemate75038.51.95%
    Iran-Iraq War19801988IraqStalemate50013.63.68%

    Battle deaths are in thousands, population in millions.

    So how does Turchin’s hypothesis hold up. Statistically, it does not do well. The correlation between casualty percent and loss/stalemate is actually -.08, not statistically significant and actually indicates the lower casualties are slightly more likely to be associated with loss/stalemate. Counting stalemate as 0.5 or using relative casualties does not give better results.

    To see what happened, let’s look at the individual wars.

    American Civil War actually follows his hypothesis. The Confederates break at just under 3% with Union casualty rate at half the Confederate. There is disagreement among leading military historians of how important attrition was, but all say it was a factor.

    World War One violates his hypothesis. The French had higher casualty rates and did not break. Of the seven wars listed, the French had higher casualty rate than any losed except Germany in WW2. Turchin in a post suggested that the French had higher asabiya (social cohesion) than the Germans but that was not part of his hypothesis. I also doubt that anyone in 1914 would have thought the Third Republic (with divisions revealed by the Dreyfus affair) was more cohesive then the Second Reich. Most historians cite the blockade and the demoralizing impact of American entry for Germany’s collapse.

    World War Two in Europe does not fit his hypothesis. Both Russian and German losses exceeded 3% and German losses were as a percent, not much higher than Russia’s (4.43% to 3.81%). Under his hypothesis, stalemate was to be expected. If the war had just between Russia and Germany, that might have happened. It should be noted that the totalitarian regimes on both sides reduced the sensitivity to losses.

    World War Two in the Pacific fits quite well (even though it ignores China). However, the Japanese did not surrender until the use of the Atomic Bomb rendered resistance pointless.

    Korean War violates his hypothesis. The losses of South Korea were quite low. If the United States is considered the antagonist the percentage is even lower. Turchin listed North Korea, if China was seen as the main participant its losses were 422,000 compared to a population of 572,000,000 (0.07%). However, the reluctance of China to continue the war is understandable if you include the casualties of the immediately proceeding Chinese Civil War and the Second Sindo-Japanese War.

    Vietnam War is another war the victor took much higher casualties than the loser. The asabiya argument looks much better here as South Vietnam was ruled by its small Catholic minority, but it still not part of the hypothesis. The Vietnam War is an outlier in the data but we can’t just arbitrarily exclude outliers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman)

    Iran-Iraq War fits the hypothesis as the Iranians had taken substantial casualties, although lower than the Iraqis. Both states had low asabiya.

    So of the seven wars he covered, 3 fit the hypothesis and 4 did not. It is no surprise that the statistical correlation was non-existent.

    The real surprise is that Turchin, who has done some excellent work would make such an error. Part of the problem is analysis by eyeballing, even the values he used did not really “cluster tightly”.

    The more substantial problem is what I call “FakePolitik”. It sounds smart to say that wars are always won by the bigger army/economy/population and dismiss those who disagree with you as idealists/romantics/fools. You can even create a simulation to “prove” it. However, examining the Correlates of War database or the Wikipedia war list will show you that many wars are lost by the “bigger” side for a variety of reasons.

  • History of Burundi – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1400 (0.08%)

    Burundi is small enough that only 1 city is listed.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Burundi-30001680None-1,
    Burundi16811883Burundi-1,
    Burundi18841890Ujiji-1,
    Burundi18911916Germany-1,
    Burundi19171962Belgium-1,
    Burundi19632022Burundi-1,

  • History of Bulgaria – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1967 (0.3%)

    Bulgaria reaches its peak due to industrialization under communist rules. It soon fell behind.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Bulgaria-3000-600None-1,
    Bulgaria-599-513None-0.8,Odessos-0.2,
    Bulgaria-512-465None-0.6,Odessos-0.2,Persia-0.2,
    Bulgaria-464-431None-0.6,Odessos-0.2,Odrysia-0.2,
    Bulgaria-430-426Odessos-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-425-404Athens-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-403-359Odessos-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-358-355Berisades-0.4,Cersebleptes-0.4,Odessos-0.2,
    Bulgaria-354-346Cersebleptes-0.4,Macedon-0.4,Odessos-0.2,
    Bulgaria-345-335Macedon-0.8,Odessos-0.2,
    Bulgaria-334-323Macedon-1,
    Bulgaria-322-315Macedon-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-314-281Lysimachos-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-280-279Odrysia-0.8,Ptolemy Ceraunus-0.2,
    Bulgaria-278-277Galatia-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-276-252Cassander-0.2,Odrysia-0.6,Tylis-0.2,
    Bulgaria-251-212Antigonus-0.2,Odrysia-0.6,Tylis-0.2,
    Bulgaria-211-209Antigonus-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-208-208Dardania-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-207-183Antigonus-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-182-182Antigonus-0.4,Odrysia-0.6,
    Bulgaria-181-181Antigonus-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-180-179Antigonus-0.8,Odrysia-0.2,
    Bulgaria-178-168Antigonus-0.2,Odrysia-0.8,
    Bulgaria-167-43Odrysia-0.8,Rome-0.2,
    Bulgaria-42-42Odrysia-0.8,Rome-Liberatores-0.2,
    Bulgaria-41-20Odrysia-0.8,Rome-0.2,
    Bulgaria-19293Rome-1,
    Bulgaria294308Rome-Galerius-1,
    Bulgaria309311Rome-Galerius-0.2,Rome-Licinius-0.8,
    Bulgaria312316Rome-Licinius-1,
    Bulgaria317324Rome-Constantine-0.2,Rome-Licinius-0.8,
    Bulgaria325337Rome-1,
    Bulgaria338350Rome-Constans-1,
    Bulgaria351353Rome-Magnentius-1,
    Bulgaria354382Rome-1,
    Bulgaria383395Ostrogoths-0.4,Rome-0.6,
    Bulgaria396402Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,Ostrogoths-0.4,
    Bulgaria403447Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria448448Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,Huns-0.4,
    Bulgaria449454Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,Huns-0.2,
    Bulgaria455583Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria584584Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bulgaria585586Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria587588Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bulgaria589593Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria594594Avars-0.2,Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,
    Bulgaria595622Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria623623Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bulgaria624680Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria681706Bulgaria-0.6,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria707836Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria837856Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria857863Bulgaria-0.6,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria864914Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria915924Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria925937Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria938938Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,Hungary-0.4,
    Bulgaria939968Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria969969Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,Russia-0.4,
    Bulgaria970971Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,Russia-0.8,
    Bulgaria972986Bulgaria-0.2,Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,
    Bulgaria9871001Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bulgaria10021122Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria11231123Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,Pecheneg-0.4,
    Bulgaria11241183Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bulgaria11841185Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bulgaria11861187Bulgaria-0.2,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,Serbia-0.2,
    Bulgaria11881193Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Serbia-0.2,
    Bulgaria11941204Bulgaria-0.6,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria12051205Bulgaria-0.6,Latin Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria12061208Bulgaria-0.8,Latin Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria12091230Bulgaria-0.6,Latin Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria12311246Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria12471255Bulgaria-0.8,Nicaea-0.2,
    Bulgaria12561263Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria12641299Bulgaria-0.6,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria13001300Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Golden Horde-0.6,
    Bulgaria13011303Bulgaria-0.6,Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,
    Bulgaria13041320Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria13211322Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria13231323Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria13241331Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria13321342Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bulgaria13431344Bulgaria-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-Regency-0.6,
    Bulgaria13451347Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-Regency-0.2,
    Bulgaria13481350Bulgaria-0.8,Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bulgaria13511356Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria13571364Bulgaria-0.8,Dobruja-0.2,
    Bulgaria13651371Bulgaria-0.6,Dobruja-0.2,Ottoman-0.2,
    Bulgaria13721373Bulgaria-0.4,Dobruja-0.2,Ottoman-0.4,
    Bulgaria13741387Dobruja-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bulgaria13881388Dobruja-0.2,Moravian Serbia-0.2,Ottoman-0.6,
    Bulgaria13891403Dobruja-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bulgaria14041404Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Ottoman-0.2,Ottoman-Suleimain-0.4,
    Bulgaria14051411Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Ottoman-Suleimain-0.6,
    Bulgaria14121413Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Ottoman-Muhammad-0.4,Ottoman-Musa-0.2,
    Bulgaria14141443Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Ottoman-0.6,
    Bulgaria14441444Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Hungary-0.2,Ottoman-0.4,
    Bulgaria14451453Eastern Roman Empire-0.4,Ottoman-0.6,
    Bulgaria14541689Ottoman-1,
    Bulgaria16901690Austria-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bulgaria16911810Ottoman-1,
    Bulgaria18111811Ottoman-0.8,Russia-0.2,
    Bulgaria18121878Ottoman-1,
    Bulgaria18791885Bulgaria-0.6,Ottoman-0.4,
    Bulgaria18861944Bulgaria-1,
    Bulgaria19451946Soviet Union-1,
    Bulgaria19472022Bulgaria-1,

  • History of Brazil – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 3000 BC (6.3%)

    Brazil had a relatively dense population in the pre-Columbian period, which fell catostrophically with the introduction of Malaria and Yellow fever. The proportions assigned to None in the 16th & 17th centuries are probably too high. In historical times, Brazil has been unified with only a few brief and limited interventions and civil wars.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Brazil-30001500none-1,
    Brazil15011501none-0.86,Portugal-0.14,
    Brazil15021531none-0.78,Portugal-0.22,
    Brazil15321611none-0.56,Portugal-0.44,
    Brazil16121615France-0.07,none-0.49,Portugal-0.44,
    Brazil16161635none-0.49,Portugal-0.51,
    Brazil16361641Netherlands-0.07,none-0.49,Portugal-0.44,
    Brazil16421642Netherlands-0.28,none-0.42,Portugal-0.3,
    Brazil16431645Netherlands-0.35,none-0.42,Portugal-0.23,
    Brazil16461654Netherlands-0.21,none-0.42,Portugal-0.37,
    Brazil16551754none-0.28,Portugal-0.72,
    Brazil17551790none-0.07,Portugal-0.93,
    Brazil17911822Portugal-1,
    Brazil18231823Brazil-0.65,Portugal-0.35,
    Brazil18241824Brazil-0.93,Portugal-0.07,
    Brazil18251835Brazil-1,
    Brazil18361836Brazil-0.86,Cabanos-0.14,
    Brazil18371839Brazil-1,
    Brazil18401845Brazil-0.93,Riograndense-0.07,
    Brazil18462022Brazil-1,

  • History of Botswana

    Peak Relative GDP: 0.03% (2014)

    Botswana seems to have been largely outside of the pre-colonial empires of Great Zimbabwe and Rozwi. Even though it was nominally a protectorate, by 1892 it was under full British control.

    Botswana has had decent economic growth in the 21st century, due to diamonds and other mineral resources.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Botswana-30001429None-1,
    Botswana14301512Mutapa-0.2,None-0.8,
    Botswana15131513Butua-0.2,None-0.8,
    Botswana15141570Mutapa-0.2,None-0.8,
    Botswana15711599Bakwena-0.2,Mutapa-0.2,None-0.6,
    Botswana16001610Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,Mutapa-0.2,None-0.4,
    Botswana16111628Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,Mutapa-0.2,None-0.2,
    Botswana16291663Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,None-0.2,Portugal-0.2,
    Botswana16641694Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,None-0.2,Rozwi-0.2,
    Botswana16951712Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,None-0.2,Portugal-0.2,
    Botswana17131719Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,None-0.2,Rozwi-0.2,
    Botswana17201746Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,Mutapa-0.2,None-0.2,
    Botswana17471759Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,BaTawana-0.2,Mutapa-0.2,
    Botswana17601836Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,BaTawana-0.2,Rozwi-0.2,
    Botswana18371883Bakwena-0.2,Bangwaketse-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,BaTawana-0.2,Matabele-0.2,
    Botswana18841885Bakwena-0.2,BaNgwato-0.2,BaTawana-0.2,Bechuanaland-0.2,Matabele-0.2,
    Botswana18861891Bechuanaland-0.8,Matabele-0.2,
    Botswana18921893Matabele-0.2,United Kingdom-0.8,
    Botswana18941966United Kingdom-1,
    Botswana19672022Botswana-1,

  • History of Bosnia – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1044 BCE (0.14%)

    There is no information on polities in this area before the Roman Conquest. During the Yugoslav Civil War, most of the major cities were controlled by the new Bosnian govenment. I am viewing the Republika Srpska as an independent state until the dissolution of its army 2006.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Bosnia-3000-19None-1,
    Bosnia-18-12None-0.8,Rome-0.2,
    Bosnia-11306Rome-1,
    Bosnia307308Rome-Galerius-1,
    Bosnia309316Rome-Licinius-1,
    Bosnia317324Rome-Constantine-1,
    Bosnia325337Rome-1,
    Bosnia338350Rome-Constans-1,
    Bosnia351353Rome-Magnentius-1,
    Bosnia354395Rome-1,
    Bosnia396402Western Roman Empire-1,
    Bosnia403480Ostrogoths-0.8,Western Roman Empire-0.2,
    Bosnia481490Odoacer-0.2,Ostrogoths-0.8,
    Bosnia491535Ostrogoths-1,
    Bosnia536536Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bosnia537537Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,Ostrogoths-0.2,
    Bosnia538562Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bosnia563583Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bosnia584584Avars-1,
    Bosnia585586Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bosnia587587Avars-1,
    Bosnia588595Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bosnia596596Avars-1,
    Bosnia597610Avars-0.4,Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,
    Bosnia611615Eastern Roman Empire-0.2,Raska-0.8,
    Bosnia616630Avars-0.2,Raska-0.8,
    Bosnia631730Raska-0.8,Zachlumia-0.2,
    Bosnia731738Raska-0.2,Serbia-0.6,Zachlumia-0.2,
    Bosnia739850Serbia-0.8,Zachlumia-0.2,
    Bosnia851921Serbia-1,
    Bosnia922922Hungary-1,
    Bosnia923924Eastern Roman Empire-0.6,Serbia-0.4,
    Bosnia925927Bulgaria-1,
    Bosnia928928Hungary-1,
    Bosnia929937Serbia-1,
    Bosnia938938Hungary-1,
    Bosnia939947Serbia-1,
    Bosnia948948Hungary-1,
    Bosnia949971Serbia-1,
    Bosnia9721037Eastern Roman Empire-1,
    Bosnia10381043Dioclea-0.2,Eastern Roman Empire-0.8,
    Bosnia10441146Dioclea-1,
    Bosnia11471166Dioclea-0.2,Serbia-0.8,
    Bosnia11671180Serbia-1,
    Bosnia11811235Bosnia-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bosnia12361236Hungary-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bosnia12371254Bosnia-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bosnia12551255Bosnia-1,
    Bosnia12561282Bosnia-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bosnia12831323Bosnia-0.6,Serbia-0.2,Syrmia-0.2,
    Bosnia13241325Bosnia-0.8,Syrmia-0.2,
    Bosnia13261350Bosnia-0.8,Serbia-0.2,
    Bosnia13511371Bosnia-0.6,Serbia-0.4,
    Bosnia13721435Bosnia-1,
    Bosnia14361463Bosnia-0.8,Saint Sava-0.2,
    Bosnia14641482Hungary-0.2,Ottoman-0.6,Saint Sava-0.2,
    Bosnia14831490Hungary-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bosnia14911526Bohemia-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bosnia15271697Ottoman-1,
    Bosnia16981699Austria-0.2,Ottoman-0.8,
    Bosnia17001878Ottoman-1,
    Bosnia18791918Austria-1,
    Bosnia19191941Yugoslavia-1,
    Bosnia19421943Germany-1,
    Bosnia19441944Germany-0.6,Yugoslavia-0.4,
    Bosnia19451945Germany-0.2,Yugoslavia-0.8,
    Bosnia19461992Yugoslavia-1,
    Bosnia19931994Bosnia-0.6,Croatia-0.2,Srpska-0.2,
    Bosnia19952005Bosnia-0.8,Srpska-0.2,
    Bosnia20062022Bosnia-1,

  • History of Bolivia – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 3000 BCE (0.5%)

    The history of Bolivia before the Inca conquest is largely guesswork.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Bolivia-3000110None-1,
    Bolivia111550None-0.6,Tiwanaku-0.4,
    Bolivia5511000None-0.4,Tiwanaku-0.6,
    Bolivia10011438None-0.6,Pacajes-0.2,Soras-0.2,
    Bolivia14391533Inca-0.8,None-0.2,
    Bolivia15341598None-0.2,Spain-0.8,
    Bolivia15991810Spain-1,
    Bolivia18111811Rio de la Plata-0.6,Spain-0.4,
    Bolivia18121812Rio de la Plata-0.4,Spain-0.6,
    Bolivia18131813Rio de la Plata-0.2,Spain-0.8,
    Bolivia18141814Rio de la Plata-0.4,Spain-0.6,
    Bolivia18151816Rio de la Plata-0.2,Spain-0.8,
    Bolivia18171822Rio de la Plata-0.8,Spain-0.2,
    Bolivia18231825Rio de la Plata-0.6,Spain-0.4,
    Bolivia18261836Bolivia-1,
    Bolivia18371839Peru-Bolivia-1,
    Bolivia18402022Bolivia-1,

  • History of Algeria – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1003 BCE (1.1%)

    Some sources miss the Mauro-Roman Kingdom but Phersu Atlas has it. All the atlases ignore the Odjak of Algiers Revolution which ended effective Ottoman rule in 1659.

    I view the Vichy French regime in WW2 as still being France, as the Germans had no garrisons, control of military forces or revenue in French Algeria. In effect, they were an ally of Germany.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Algeria-3000-400Carthage-0.2,None-0.8,
    Algeria-399-300Carthage-0.52,None-0.48,
    Algeria-299-237Carthage-0.52,Massylii-0.16,Mauretania-0.32,
    Algeria-236-201Carthage-0.68,Mauretania-0.32,
    Algeria-200-116Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.68,
    Algeria-115-113Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.2,Numidia-Adherbal-0.32,Numidia-Jugurtha-0.16,
    Algeria-112-112Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.36,Numidia-Adherbal-0.16,Numidia-Jugurtha-0.16,
    Algeria-111-109Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.68,
    Algeria-108-108Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.36,Rome-0.32,
    Algeria-107-107Mauretania-0.48,Numidia-0.36,Rome-0.16,
    Algeria-106-106Mauretania-0.32,Numidia-0.52,Rome-0.16,
    Algeria-105-25Mauretania-0.68,Rome-0.32,
    Algeria-24305Rome-1,
    Algeria306307Rome-Severus-1,
    Algeria308308Rome-Maxentius-1,
    Algeria309311Rome-Domitius Alexander-1,
    Algeria312313Rome-Maxentius-1,
    Algeria314324Rome-Constantine-1,
    Algeria325337Rome-1,
    Algeria338350Rome-Constans-1,
    Algeria351351Rome-Magnentius-1,
    Algeria352353Rome-Constantius-1,
    Algeria354395Rome-1,
    Algeria396429Western Roman Empire-1,
    Algeria430430Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.16,Vandal Kingdom-0.36,Western Roman Empire-0.48,
    Algeria431431Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.32,Vandal Kingdom-0.52,Western Roman Empire-0.16,
    Algeria432533Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.32,Vandal Kingdom-0.68,
    Algeria534534Eastern Roman Empire-0.16,Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.32,Vandal Kingdom-0.52,
    Algeria535571Eastern Roman Empire-0.68,Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.32,
    Algeria572572Mauro-Roman Kingdom-1,
    Algeria573578Eastern Roman Empire-0.68,Mauro-Roman Kingdom-0.32,
    Algeria579700Altava-0.16,Eastern Roman Empire-0.68,Ourasenis-0.16,
    Algeria701708Altava-0.16,Ourasenis-0.16,Umayyad-0.68,
    Algeria709742Umayyad-1,
    Algeria743750Tlemcen-0.32,Umayyad-0.68,
    Algeria751767Abbasid-0.68,Tlemcen-0.32,
    Algeria768790Abbasid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria791800Abbasid-0.48,Rustamid-0.52,
    Algeria801909Aghlabid-0.48,Rustamid-0.52,
    Algeria9101014Fatimid-1,
    Algeria10151049Fatimid-0.52,Hammadid-0.48,
    Algeria10501057Hammadid-0.48,Zirid-0.52,
    Algeria10581080Almoravid-0.32,Hammadid-0.68,
    Algeria10811145Almoravid-0.52,Hammadid-0.48,
    Algeria11461147Almohad-0.32,Almoravid-0.2,Hammadid-0.48,
    Algeria11481152Almohad-0.52,Hammadid-0.48,
    Algeria11531158Almohad-0.84,Sicily-0.16,
    Algeria11591229Almohad-1,
    Algeria12301235Almohad-0.52,Hafsid-0.48,
    Algeria12361242Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria12431320Hafsid-1,
    Algeria13211337Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria13381347Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.16,Tlemcen-0.36,
    Algeria13481348Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.52,
    Algeria13491352Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria13531353Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.52,
    Algeria13541357Hafsid-0.32,Marinid-0.68,
    Algeria13581359Marinid-1,
    Algeria13601360Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria13611361Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.16,Tlemcen-0.36,
    Algeria13621370Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria13711371Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.16,Tlemcen-0.36,
    Algeria13721385Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria13861389Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.16,Tlemcen-0.36,
    Algeria13901424Hafsid-0.48,Marinid-0.52,
    Algeria14251500Hafsid-1,
    Algeria15011509Hafsid-0.48,Tlemcen-0.52,
    Algeria15101510Hafsid-0.48,Spain-0.16,Tlemcen-0.36,
    Algeria15111512Algiers-0.2,Hafsid-0.32,Spain-0.32,Tlemcen-0.16,
    Algeria15131516Algiers-0.2,Hafsid-0.32,Spain-0.48,
    Algeria15171518Hafsid-0.32,Ottoman-0.2,Spain-0.48,
    Algeria15191519Hafsid-0.32,Ottoman-0.2,Spain-0.32,Tlemcen-0.16,
    Algeria15201521Algiers-0.2,Hafsid-0.32,Ottoman-0.16,Spain-0.32,
    Algeria15221522Algiers-0.2,Hafsid-0.16,Ottoman-0.32,Spain-0.32,
    Algeria15231525Algiers-0.2,Ottoman-0.48,Spain-0.32,
    Algeria15261535Ottoman-0.68,Spain-0.32,
    Algeria15361540Ottoman-0.36,Spain-0.64,
    Algeria15411554Ottoman-0.52,Spain-0.48,
    Algeria15551555Ottoman-0.36,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.48,
    Algeria15561569Ottoman-0.52,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.32,
    Algeria15701573Ottoman-0.68,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.16,
    Algeria15741574Ottoman-0.36,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.48,
    Algeria15751658Ottoman-0.68,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.16,
    Algeria16591659Algiers-0.52,Ottoman-0.16,Saadi-0.16,Spain-0.16,
    Algeria16601708Algiers-0.68,Morocco-0.16,Spain-0.16,
    Algeria17091732Algiers-0.84,Morocco-0.16,
    Algeria17331792Algiers-0.68,Morocco-0.16,Spain-0.16,
    Algeria17931830Algiers-0.84,Morocco-0.16,
    Algeria18311832Algiers-0.32,France-0.52,Morocco-0.16,
    Algeria18331835Algiers-0.16,France-0.68,Morocco-0.16,
    Algeria18361836France-0.84,Morocco-0.16,
    Algeria18371837France-1,
    Algeria18381840Abdelkader-0.16,France-0.84,
    Algeria18411962France-1,
    Algeria19632022Algeria-1,

  • History of Benin – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1700 (0.4%)

    Benin’s peak reflects its role in the Atlantic slave trade.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Benin-30001299None-1,
    Benin13001550Ardra-0.3,None-0.7,
    Benin15511700Allada-0.3,Benin-0.4,None-0.3,
    Benin17011724Allada-0.3,Oyo-0.4,Parakou-0.3,
    Benin17251748Dahomey-0.3,Oyo-0.4,Parakou-0.3,
    Benin17491823Oyo-0.7,Parakou-0.3,
    Benin18241890Dahomey-0.3,Oyo-0.4,Parakou-0.3,
    Benin18911894Dahomey-0.3,France-0.4,Parakou-0.3,
    Benin18951960France-1,
    Benin19611975Dahomey-1,
    Benin19762022Benin-1,

  • History of Belgium – Modern Boundaries

    Peak Year: 1880 (1.3%)

    Belgium industrialized early, but the rest of the world starting growing faster.

    Phersu Atlas is the best source on this, despite some confusion about the Frankish sub-kingdoms. I consider the Holy Roman Empire to be the main polity until the interregnum of 1254. I view that Brabant was still basically part of France.

    My choice of cities to examine exaggerates the importance of the Prince-Bishopric of Liege.

    State Proportions for Selected Country Table

    CountryStart YearEnd YearProportions
    Belgium-3000-251None-1,
    Belgium-250-57Belgae-1,
    Belgium-56-56Belgae-0.6,Rome-0.4,
    Belgium-55-53Belgae-0.4,Rome-0.6,
    Belgium-52-49Rome-1,
    Belgium-48-45Rome-Caesar-1,
    Belgium-44260Rome-1,
    Belgium261274Gallic Empire-1,
    Belgium275306Rome-1,
    Belgium307324Rome-Constantine-1,
    Belgium325337Rome-1,
    Belgium338340Rome-Constantine II-1,
    Belgium341350Rome-Constans-1,
    Belgium351353Rome-Magnentius-1,
    Belgium354358Rome-1,
    Belgium359395France-0.6,Rome-0.4,
    Belgium396406France-0.6,Western Roman Empire-0.4,
    Belgium407411France-0.6,Rome-Constantine III-0.2,Western Roman Empire-0.2,
    Belgium412420France-0.6,Western Roman Empire-0.4,
    Belgium421451France-1,
    Belgium452452France-0.4,Huns-0.6,
    Belgium453511France-0.8,Franks-0.2,
    Belgium512558Soissons-1,
    Belgium559561France-1,
    Belgium562562Metz-0.4,Soissons-0.6,
    Belgium563563Metz-1,
    Belgium564573Metz-0.4,Soissons-0.6,
    Belgium574575Metz-1,
    Belgium576600Metz-0.4,Soissons-0.6,
    Belgium601612Frisians-0.4,Metz-0.4,Soissons-0.2,
    Belgium613613Frisians-0.4,Orleans-0.4,Soissons-0.2,
    Belgium614630France-0.6,Frisians-0.4,
    Belgium631639France-1,
    Belgium640661Austrasia-0.4,Neustria-0.6,
    Belgium662662France-1,
    Belgium663673Austrasia-0.4,Neustria-0.6,
    Belgium674676France-1,
    Belgium677679Austrasia-0.4,France-0.2,Neustria-0.4,
    Belgium680715France-1,
    Belgium716718Austrasia-0.4,Neustria-0.6,
    Belgium719741France-1,
    Belgium742747Austrasia-0.4,Neustria-0.6,
    Belgium748768France-1,
    Belgium769771Austrasia-0.4,France-0.2,Neustria-0.4,
    Belgium772842France-1,
    Belgium843843France-0.6,Lotharingia-0.4,
    Belgium844870Lotharingia-1,
    Belgium871880France-1,
    Belgium881882Saxony-1,
    Belgium883884East Francia-0.8,France-0.2,
    Belgium885887France-1,
    Belgium888888East Francia-1,
    Belgium889889Burgundy-0.6,France-0.2,Lotharingia-0.2,
    Belgium890890East Francia-0.6,France-0.2,Lotharingia-0.2,
    Belgium891898East Francia-0.8,France-0.2,
    Belgium899899Burgundy-0.2,East Francia-0.8,
    Belgium900900East Francia-0.4,France-0.2,Lotharingia-0.4,
    Belgium901911East Francia-0.8,France-0.2,
    Belgium912922France-1,
    Belgium923926France-0.2,Lotharingia-0.8,
    Belgium927929Lotharingia-1,
    Belgium930961East Francia-0.8,France-0.2,
    Belgium962962East Francia-0.6,France-0.2,Holy Roman Empire-0.2,
    Belgium963963France-0.2,Holy Roman Empire-0.4,Lower Lotharingia-0.4,
    Belgium964985France-0.2,Holy Roman Empire-0.6,Lower Lotharingia-0.2,
    Belgium9861254France-0.2,Holy Roman Empire-0.8,
    Belgium12551272Brabant-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium12731278Brabant-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.2,Luxembourg-0.2,
    Belgium12791302Brabant-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium13031357Brabant-0.4,Flanders-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium13581384Brabant-0.2,Flanders-0.2,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium13851405Brabant-0.2,Burgundy-0.2,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium14061430Brabant-0.4,Burgundy-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium14311482Burgundy-0.6,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium14831486Austria-0.6,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium14871513Austria-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium15141514Austria-0.4,England-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium15151529Austria-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium15301556Austria-0.6,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium15571579Liege-0.4,Spain-0.6,
    Belgium15801581Liege-0.4,Netherlands-0.4,Spain-0.2,
    Belgium15821584Liege-0.4,Netherlands-0.6,
    Belgium15851585Liege-0.4,Netherlands-0.4,Spain-0.2,
    Belgium15861676Liege-0.4,Spain-0.6,
    Belgium16771678France-0.2,Liege-0.4,Spain-0.4,
    Belgium16791693Liege-0.4,Spain-0.6,
    Belgium16941695France-0.2,Liege-0.2,Spain-0.6,
    Belgium16961701Liege-0.2,Spain-0.8,
    Belgium17021706France-0.8,Liege-0.2,
    Belgium17071713France-0.2,Liege-0.2,Netherlands-0.6,
    Belgium17141714Austria-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.2,Netherlands-0.2,
    Belgium17151745Austria-0.6,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium17461746Austria-0.4,France-0.2,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium17471748Austria-0.2,France-0.6,Liege-0.2,
    Belgium17491794Austria-0.6,Liege-0.4,
    Belgium17951815France-1,
    Belgium18161830Netherlands-1,
    Belgium18311831Belgium-1,
    Belgium18321832Belgium-0.8,Netherlands-0.2,
    Belgium18331914Belgium-1,
    Belgium19151918Germany-1,
    Belgium19191940Belgium-1,
    Belgium19411944Germany-1,
    Belgium19452022Belgium-1,